Marin Real Estate
Mark Danforth Lomas MDLomas@gmail.com 415-435-1718
Marin County Real Estate Blog

What Happened to Marin Real Estate?

2005
Some economist began predicting that the economy was in trouble due to Wall Street and the Big Banks Derivitive trades that collateralized liar loans (unstated or fabricated incomes) with other securities. And, as these liar loans/adjustable mortgages started to re-set at higher interest rates many economist began predicting the burst of the real estate bubble.  (see Michael Lewis's book "The Big Short.")
2006
In July and August of 2006 the Marin Real Estate market peaked.  July and August reflected the highest median price sales to date.
2007
As the bubble builds, real estate sales in Marin begin to slow, and the median price begins dropping.
2008
In the fall of 2008 the predictions of 2005 are realized, and for the remainder of 2008 the Marin Real Estate market slips into a lull. Northern Marin is hit hard!  Clearly it's a buyer's market.
2009
The lull continues. Prices drop. Foreclosure, short sales, and REO properties dominate the Marin Real Estate market. Investor begin buying troubled properties.  The low end of the Marin Real Estate market keeps the rest of the Marin market propped up.
2010
The local real estate market here starts to pick up, and Marin Realtors wonder if we've stopped bouncing off the bottom? Mid range and upper end properties sales pick up but buyers are extremenly picky, and demanding.
2011
It appears the market is showing signs of life and then the Deficit Ceiling Debate begins, and the Marin Real Estate market begins to slip into another lull in response along with fears with what's happening with Europe's economy.  Buyers have become more cautious then ever.  Some buyers are so frustrated trying to get a mortgage when they have a strong down payment, good credit, and additional resources and still can't get a loan.  A significant number of qualified buyers decide to rent.  Rents go up, and the real estate market here in the Bay Area continues to slow.
2012
A lot of good signs out there! The Stock Market is up. Interest rates are down. Early reports of traffic through Sunday Open Houses appears to be picking up.  More new buyers coming into the market? And yet, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is Europe's economy. In particular, Europe's Derivitive market.  This is the big unknown, and this could change everything.

Happy New Year!

Marin Real Estate


For the whole article click here:  Marin Home Sales Edge Up



Home Sales Up!

On October 20, 2011 the Marin Independent Journal reported that the number of houses sold in Marin edged up in September compared with the same month in 2010. For the whole story click on the link below.

Marin Home Sales Up in September

Fewer Marin Homes Fall Behind on Mortgages

Marin Real Estate in "Real Time"

              
      This Graph will change Towns every 7 seconds

Data provided by Mark Lomas
Marin Real Estate
(415) 435-1718 MDLomas@gmail.com

Marin Luxury Real Estate

America Cup's Course

The proposed course for the 34th America Cup in San Francisco Bay. 

The 2013 America's Cup in San Francisco is touted to be the largest sporting event to hit American shores in the next 10 years!  It's already considered the third largest sporting event after the Olympics and World Cup soccer, and there's been much chat about how big it'll be when the Cup hits town starting with events on the bay next summer.

Realtor Serves Marijuana Brownies

Apparently some sort of Mixup in Hollywood

As actress Rose McGowan of Grindhouse, Scream and Jawbreakers fame prepared her Hollywood home for sale, a mixup between McGowan and her assistant as to which brownies to put out for the eight Realtors and various inspectors coming to the home, according to ContactMusic.com.

The agents apparently ate marijuana-laced brownies (“pot brownies”) after McGowan’s assistant put out the wrong batch of snacks. ContactMusic.com reports the assistant made the brownies for McGowan to try but mixed them up with the legitimate brownies.

“Enjoy!”

McGowan said, “There were eight Realtors and inspectors coming to the house… and you have to get out of your house… and I notice there’s a big, huge plate of brownies that said ‘Enjoy!’ on the saran-wrap… and I just left, I didn’t think about it.”

She also noted that “At 4:30, I get a call from my realtor saying, ‘Erm, I’m at my parent teacher conference; was there anything in those brownies?’ I’m imagining all these poor people… high as a kite, like, ‘What the hell happened in Hollywood?’”


CEO for FSBO.com Lists Own Property For Sale

Former FSBO CEO sells home the traditional way

Founder and former CEO of ForSalebyOwner.com, Colby Sambrotto listed his 2,000 square foot New York condominium on his own through online classified ads and FSBO sites, but after six months, he opted to hire New York broker Jesse Buckler who immediately advised a price change as the listing was not attracting the right buyer.

After giving up on the DIY route, Sambrotto’s decision to hire a broker led to attracting multiple offers, closing for $150,000 over the original asking price. The Wall Street Journal reports the listing sold for $2.15 million including a 6% commission.

Many FSBOs turn to Realtors

The news stands as an enormous validation of the real estate profession and while some may tease, it is no laughing matter and the former FSBO CEO made a good financial decision.

AGBeat columnist Herman Chan said, “If people want to take a stab at For Sale By Owner (ie FSBO), go for it. But well over 80% of FSBO’s eventually have to list with an real estate agent to get their house sold. It’s harder than it looks!”

Not a new dilemma

Marlow Harris, Seattle Residential and Investment Consultant at Coldwell Banker Bain Associates told AGBeat, “The ForSaleByOwner.com founder’s dilemma is one we see quite often and is not unusual. Trying to sell your own property yourself or using a discount brokerage, is not the solution for everyone. Unusual properties, properties in the higher price range, these are more difficult to sell and often require specialization.”

Harris continues, “We see these choices across the board, from single family homes to huge housing developments. For instance, Vulcan, one of Paul Allen’s companies which has invested heavily in Redfin, does not use Redfin to market their many condominium projects. They use traditional real estate firms such as John L. Scott, Williams Marketing and Matrix Real Estate, finding that the do-it-yourself approach to real estate just doesn’t work for these types of sales.”


Tiburon Real Estate Broker Pleads Guilty To Loan Fraud

Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 the Marin independent Journal reported that:
" A Tiburon Real Estate broker has pleaded GUILTY to Federal Fraud charges stemming from a Five Million Dollar re-financing loan on his own home the IRS reported.  Abraham Valentino, 52, pleaded guilty as charged last week to wire fraud, and money laundering, said IRS special agent Arlette Lee.  Authorities said Valentino falsified his income on his loan application, claiming a monthly income was $132,000 when it was actually $4,500 to $6000.  Valentino used the proceeds of the transaction to transfer $63,427.40 into his personal  bank account prosecuters said."

For the whole article, click here: Tiburon Real Estate Broker Pleads Guilty

The "Big Six" Home Selling Factors

          Although they can be stated in different ways there are only six factors that affect the sale of a home.
          It is important for you, as the seller, to understand who or what has control over them and how they impact on each other.
  • You control 3 of the 6
  • The Market controls 2 of the 6
  • Your REALTOR® controls 1 of the 6
YOU Control
1. Price - You determine list price for your home. However, a list price above the market for homes similar to yours will impact negatively on buyer interest in making an offer. Your REALTOR® will review price history with you to assist you in making a list price determination.
2. Terms - Buyers have requirements just as sellers do. Your willingness to respect them and be willing to negotiate which terms will be acceptable to both parties can have a very positive impact. Price and Terms will usually be negotiated at the same time.
3. Condition - How well you have maintained the home will influence both your price and length of time to sell. The pool of buyers who are willing to make major repairs is much smaller than the pool of buyers who want a home that has been well maintained.
THE MARKET Controls
4. Timing - Economic conditions operate independently of price, terms and property condition. Similarly, seasons and weather factors can affect the time it takes to sell a home.
5. Competition - The number of homes on the market most certainly bears heavily on your ability to sell your home on a timely basis.
YOUR REALTOR® Controls
6. Promotion - From entry into the Multiple Listing System, to internet marketing and any other programs your agent will have an impact on your home sale.
CONCLUSION
  • Feedback from prospects who have visited your home
  • Changes in market conditions
Your willingness or ability to make adjustments in price, terms or condition based on the information provided will be the final determinant as to how quickly your home will sell. Any Questions?





Marin Real Estate



PENDING Home Sales Rise Unexpectantly in June

Marin Foreclosures Level Off, Defaults Fall in Marin

The Debt Ceiling,the Bond Market, and Real Estate

Let’s take a look at what is happening in Europe these days to understand why it’s key that the United States finds a solution to the debt ceiling issue. Not only have some European banks recently failed a stress test, but last week there was news that Greek, Italian, Portuguese, and French “credit default swaps” (which are insurance policies against default) were trading at record levels. While the European Union is continuing to work to contain Europe’s debt problems and prevent a default in Greece, these events carry a very important lesson for the U.S.

Why? Because solving our debt ceiling debate and finding a long-term plan for lowering our deficit and being fiscally sound will raise confidence in our debt and help the U.S. keep its excellent AAA credit rating from the various credit rating firms like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s. This will help investors continue to see the U.S. as a safe haven for their money, which is a key aspect of our continued economic recovery. 

There was some good news last week for the housing sector, aJune Housing Starts and Building Permits were both reported better than expected. 

Political uncertainty caused volatility in the markets last week, which put pressure on the bond market and home loan rates.



The Tiburon Shoreline and Mount Tamalpais from Angel Island

Sunday Online Open Houses

Click here for: Sunday Marin County Online Open Houses  by the Marin Independent Journal

The Marin Independent Journal Sunday Online Open House web site is the definitive
Marin Online Open House Web Site.



Click the link below for the Marin Association of Realtor's new Sunday Online Open House's web site:  
Marin Online Open Houses

Click the link below to search Marin Homes For Sale (No Registration Required)
Marin Homes For Sale 

Marin Real Estate Statistics for June 2011

The Marin Real Estate Scene



Marin Home Sales Rise, Prices Edges Up Article

SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE NO REGISTRATION REQUIRED

Marin Luxury Home Sales

Rick Turley, President of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage recently reported that, "The luxury market, like the overall market in Marin, continues to show signs of improvement.  But, there will likely continue to be some choppiness from month to month as the market works to get traction. Comparisons with a year ago are difficult because the market last May was still benefitting from the Federal Tax Credit, which has since expired.  Although the credit wasn't aimed at the upper priced homes, the tax break indirectly helped fuel sales for move up buyers who sold their entry level and mid priced homes." 

Turley also noted some key finding in May of 2011 such as:
* The most expensive sale in Marin County in May was an eight bedroom, eight bath 8000 square foot home in Ross sold for $8.75 million.
* Mill Valley hosted the most million dollar plus sales with 10, followed by Tiburon , Kentfield, Larkspur, and Sausalito with seven apiece, and San Rafael with six.
* Sellers received on average 95 percent of their asking price, down from 96 percent the previous month, but the same percentage as a year ago.
* Homes that Sold stayed on the market an average of 96 days, down from 114 days but up from 89 days a year ago.

Marin Real Estate Statistics June 2011



SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE NO REGISTRATION REQUIRED

Assessor Cuts Marin Home Valuations

     On July 5th the Marin Independent Journal newspaper reported that, "The Marin County assessor, citing a continuing slide in home values, has reduced the value of 27 percent of Marin's residential properties, providing tax breaks for 21,600 home owners.
     The move by assessor Rich Benson eclipses adjustments made last year that reduced the value of 21 percent of the county's residences in what was then the biggest reassessment purge since Proposition 13, providing breaks for 16,000 property owners.
     Benson, noting declining values in a deflated real estate market, reduced assessed valuations for thousands of parcels " mostly because of the economic conditions that have existed" for several years.
     For the whole story click here: Marin Assessor Cuts Marin Home Valuations

Marin Real Estate Statistics

Marin History Museum's Marin Independent Journal's Exhibit

On June 24, 2011 the Marin History Museum held a "Sneak Preview" of their Marin Independent Journal's Newspaper Exhibit.  This event is now open to the public. The Marin History Museum is located at 1125 B Street in San Rafael. Museum Hours are 11am to 4pm Tuesday through Saturday.  The Marin Independent Journal is celebrating it's 150 Year Anniversary.








One of many Marin Real Estate advertisement on exhibit.  There are so many wonderful items on display here that the only way to truly enjoy this exhibit is to attend in person.  Highly recommended, great exhibit! Much thanks to the Marin History Museum and all the people there that make exhibits like this possible!



Larkspur Real Estate History

Larkspur, California 1911

This 1911 full page advertisement from the San Francisco Examiner assured potential buyers that "desirable people will be given the most reasonalble terms. Undesirable people won't be given any terms. They are not wanted."    Image courtesy Larkspur Heritage Preservation Board

Time to Buy?

Despite what appears to be a non-stop wave of tough news regarding real estate, four major media players have come out this month with the same advice: It Is Time to Buy a Home! Here are the four articles and a breakdown as to why the advice makes sense.

The Wall Street Journal: Why It’s Time to Buy

CBS Money Watch: Why the Time to Buy is Now

Forbes Magazine: 9 Reasons to Buy a House Now

National Public Radio: For Many, It’s Still a Good Time to Buy a Home

With prices continuing to depreciate in most regions of the country, some may wonder why these four entities are suggesting to their readership that now is the time to buy. Each organization realizes that PRICE is not as important as COST. The cost of a home can go up even if prices continue to fall. Unless you are an all cash buyer, you must take into consideration the expense of mortgaging when calculating the full cost of a home. Here is some information to consider.

Interest Rates

Currently, interest rates sit at historic lows. However, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, PMI and the National Association of Realtors are all projecting approximately a 1% increase in mortgage rates over the next year. A one percent increase in rate negates a ten percent fall in prices.

Lending Standards

The government has proposed a tightening of lending standards called Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM). If accepted as proposed two things will happen:

  1. The qualification process for loans will become more difficult
  2. The cost of a loan will increase

Bottom Line

There is a reason more and more financial organizations are suggesting to their followers that now is the time to buy a home: because the cost of purchasing a home is about to increase (even if prices continue to fall).

If you're thinking of buying or selling a home here in Marin County contact Mark Lomas at 415.435.1718 cell or email MDLomas@gmail.com

Marin Real Estate News

     On June 14, 2011 the Marin Independent Journal newspaper reported that," The number of Marin single family homes sold in May dropped 12.4 percent to 169 from the same month a year ago and the median sales price dipped slightly to $775,000, according to new figures from the Marin County assessor's office.
     The number of houses placed "under contract" in May soared to a four year high of 231 - the highest figure since 232 contracts reached in May 2007.  The figures suggest the May sales dip could be followed by a surge as contracts are closed in early summer." 


Marin Independent Journal Article Marin Home Sales

Federal Government Plans Cut in Cap for Backing Mortgages

Search Marin Homes For Sale No Registration Required


Banks and Loan Modifications

The banks have made loan modifications very difficult.  Sherry Belcher of ReMax Golden Empire Realty in Southern California reported in this months's NAR Realtor's magazine: "I've worked in the loan servicing business for 18 years, and real estate is my passion.  The way I see it, most people are forced to do a short sale simply because the banks won't modify their existing loan.  I've have seen several instances in which struggling borrowers try to work with the banks, only to learn that the banks won't even consider a loan modification request until the mortgage is three months behind.   Crazy!

Why, instead of giving the home to a complete stranger at a discounted price, can't banks help borrowers who truly have a hardship?  Qualify owners for what they can pay and reduce the principal.

The government is helping banks cover their losses, so taxpayer should have a voice.

 So, where's our voice?  Where's the political leadership?  Current Bank policies regarding loan modifications are a disaster, and are making any kind of economic recovery in the housing markets very difficult if almost impossible.  Why?

Recently a homeowner in Marin that was current on their payments with Wachovia were told that they would not qualify for a loan modification because they made too much money. This homeowner missed two payments, contacted Wachovia to try and modify their loan again, and were told they did not make enough money to qualify for a loan modification

Without any leadership from Washington, the bank's loan modification programs are a disaster. What a mess Washington, Wall Street, and the Big Banks have gotten us in. Until the banks are ready to reasonably modify loans the housing recovery will continue to stall.
 
Are you listening President Obama? (playoff on the  Rick Santelli rant)

Memorial Day


Much thanks to all those who've served, and continue to serve our Country!
Happy Memorial Day!

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