What Happened to Marin Real Estate?

2005
Some economist began predicting that the economy was in trouble due to Wall Street and the Big Banks Derivitive trades that collateralized liar loans (unstated or fabricated incomes) with other securities. And, as these liar loans/adjustable mortgages started to re-set at higher interest rates many economist began predicting the burst of the real estate bubble.  (see Michael Lewis's book "The Big Short.")
2006
In July and August of 2006 the Marin Real Estate market peaked.  July and August reflected the highest median price sales to date.
2007
As the bubble builds, real estate sales in Marin begin to slow, and the median price begins dropping.
2008
In the fall of 2008 the predictions of 2005 are realized, and for the remainder of 2008 the Marin Real Estate market slips into a lull. Northern Marin is hit hard!  Clearly it's a buyer's market.
2009
The lull continues. Prices drop. Foreclosure, short sales, and REO properties dominate the Marin Real Estate market. Investor begin buying troubled properties.  The low end of the Marin Real Estate market keeps the rest of the Marin market propped up.
2010
The local real estate market here starts to pick up, and Marin Realtors wonder if we've stopped bouncing off the bottom? Mid range and upper end properties sales pick up but buyers are extremenly picky, and demanding.
2011
It appears the market is showing signs of life and then the Deficit Ceiling Debate begins, and the Marin Real Estate market begins to slip into another lull in response along with fears with what's happening with Europe's economy.  Buyers have become more cautious then ever.  Some buyers are so frustrated trying to get a mortgage when they have a strong down payment, good credit, and additional resources and still can't get a loan.  A significant number of qualified buyers decide to rent.  Rents go up, and the real estate market here in the Bay Area continues to slow.
2012
A lot of good signs out there! The Stock Market is up. Interest rates are down. Early reports of traffic through Sunday Open Houses appears to be picking up.  More new buyers coming into the market? And yet, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is Europe's economy. In particular, Europe's Derivitive market.  This is the big unknown, and this could change everything.

 

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