Marin County Real Estate Blog

Marin Homes Sales Rise Sharply

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-05-20T22:58:20Z

Here we are, back again. The market is still hot here in Marin. So what I’ve seen at all those open houses was not an illusion, not an exaggeration. Agents are saying the number of visitors to open houses is up dramatically, hardly leaving them any time to talk to any of the people.

What’s going on, I ask myself? People I meet ask me the same question. My answer is twofold: one the one hand, inventory is still way down and demand is still way up, knocking the sales numbers out of the park, up 21% from the same month last year. On the other hand, is it real? The second half of my answer is: while I do not see this trend across the country, it’s certainly true here in Marin County, San Francisco and the Peninsula, so whether it’s a reflection of a national reality is not the point; at this moment in time it is the reality here. If you are a buyer you have to play by these rules, even if they prove to be wrong at some point in the future. Sounds crazy? Yeah, it does, sort of…

Another real fear driving buyers to the table is the specter of higher interest rates which, defying all prognostications, are still breaking record lows.

Here’s a link to the recent article in the IJ:

MARIN HOME SALES INCREASE

If you ever have questions about the market, you are welcome to write or call.

Bringing you up to date on prices and sales

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-05-14T04:19:32Z

Not sure why, but the Independent Journal website did not post their March sales numbers until just a few days back. Whatever the case, the news was interesting. After that great run of three months there was a slight correction, but only slight.

The median price dropped in March to $680,000, a drop of 12.7 percent when compared to March 2011. However, sales are up 10.5% from last year. We are still very much in a seller’s market, with homes in contract topping 49% again¸ a pretty amazing number when you consider that 35% and above is a Seller’s market.

I am attaching links to two different articles; one, the article from the IJ, and two, a commentary from RPM Mortgage about trends and directions in interest rates. For anyone interested in Marin real estate, both are well worth the reading.

MARIN HOME SALES RISE

THE MORTGAGE MARKET

Multiple Offer Backlash

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-05-03T05:29:29Z

The multiple offers just keep on coming. Strange to be saying that again, but I am.

The lowest price points are on fire, especially in central Marin, where a good home is gone in less than a week. The wave of multiple offers is extending into higher priced homes as well, embracing the million and occasionally million-plus homes. Are the homes really too good to pass up? Example: I just had a listing (which is about to go into contract) where I had 7 agents calling saying they were planning to write up offers. What? That’s crazy!

But I see a possible “backlash,” if that’s the right word. There are so many offers gathering around any decent new listing that many of the buyers drop out before even touching pen to paper. I had one buyer ask to write a full-price preemptive offer if we promised to accept it and not have an open house. No, afraid not. The agent said her client had been in four other multiple offer situations and was just plain fed up. The very next day one of the seven planning to write called back and said the same; too many bidders, too likely to go over asking. They dropped out.

You’ve heard it before…too little inventory…We have just over a 2-month supply; normal is a 5-6 month supply.

So, the backlash: many buyers may just go back on the fence until more inventory appears, but I don’t see that happening unless there is a flood of foreclosures on the market. Fewer active buyers? If that does happen, it might make things a bit more manageable. Buyers have a little more time to choose, Sellers still sell their house, but unfortunately for them, just not with the inflated prices.

The next few months will be very interesting. My question is: will we see this frenetic market roll right into the summer, when normally you’d see a seasonal cooling in time for vacations and such? That will be an indicator everyone will want to pay attention to.

What one person says about market uncertainty

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-26T15:05:04Z

I've added a link below to an article from the KCM blog about bumps on the road to a recovery. While one month's good news does not make a bull market, nor does one month of stumbles make a bear. It's a long process and has to be seen as part of a bigger picture.

Add to that one fact that IS a constant: the desirability of home ownership here in Marin. Supply and demand. People want to live here and always will. There is only so much growth that can happen, and most of that is in Novato. There just isn't the space.

To read the complete article, select the link below:

EVERYBODY CALM DOWN

The last week of economic indicators

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-25T05:31:09Z

After a week of less than stellar economic news, the inevitable questions come to mind: is it a stall or just a mini-stumble?

Here’s the list: Retail sales were up (the only good indicator of the bunch); housing starts down, jobless claims up, existing home sales down, new home sales down, housing prices down. Here’s a link if you want to read more…

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Will sales of Marin homes go up for a fourth month?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-20T05:42:26Z

Irrational exuberance…Remember that phrase? The famous warning uttered by Alan Greenspan implying that the market might be overheating...

After an exhausting day of touring the new listings, I will begin by saying that what I said yesterday still holds true today. It didn’t matter if the home I previewed was $900,000 or $1.4M; if the house was a good value, the agents were asking when offers were being accepted. From where I sit we appear to be in the middle of a mini-frenzy. So here’s the real question: Is this the beginning of a sustained recovery or is it another bubble destined to pop?

Now you’re thinking, I just read the housing report; it wasn’t very encouraging. Perhaps, but that’s a national report. Hate to bring it up again…Marin County doesn’t follow the norm. But is it just another case of…Irrational Exuberance? Herd mentality? Does the word "lemming" come to mind? I don’t know, and I won’t predict. I'm just seeing a lot of business going down.

Will the sale of homes go up for a fourth month? Those numbers are out any day now.

Marin Sales and Prices heating up

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-19T06:45:11Z

I’ve been dancing around what appears to be staring me in the face, namely that real estate in Marin is on a big rebound. Up to now, I have assiduously avoided making grandiose claims about the improving market. My claims won’t ever be grandiose, but…

True story…Three of my buyers in three price ranges all found the home they wanted, three new listings, but despite my warnings, they hesitated. They were too busy to act, wanting to see the homes a second time, hadn’t talked to a mortgage broker, etc. Besides, things can’t be that crazy, can they? Five days after seeing the houses, all three are in contract, having received three or more offers, some with back ups. Should I have been more insistent? Perhaps, but does anyone want to come off sounding like most people’s perception of a Realtor, some pushy person saying “Buy, buy, buy before it’s too late!” No, I’d rather not. Is there a lesson here? The obvious one is: if you’re serious about buying a home, get pre-approved and, as painful and foolish as this may sound, be prepared to consider an offer after only one viewing, especially if the agent says “We’re looking at offers on Tuesday.” The good news is, you can always change your mind.

Tune in next time for: More thoughts on this unfolding drama, where I conjure up the ghost of Alan Greenspan, scary as that might sound.

Follow up to 3 months of Marin price rises

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-13T05:48:04Z

Parting thoughts? Gradual improvement. Slow rise in prices at the higher end, continuing flat and possibly diminishing prices at the low end due to years of backlogged forecloses and short sales. Rise in interest rates if inflation becomes a concern. Marin will continue to buck the nation’s general trend as employment will improve in the Bay Area before other areas (we’re already seeing that). Continued strangled inventory as large numbers of owners will not budge until they see a lot more gain. Advice? If you’re a Buyer and you really want to buy a home, you had better be ready to act if the right home comes along. Get all your mortgage/loan homework done. Seller? If you’ve got to sell, you’ve got to sell. The bright side of that equation is that if you’re planning to move up or down anywhere else (outside of Marin County), the prices will likely have fallen even more where you’re moving, making the entire sell-buy transaction a winning one for you, something sellers often overlook.

Announcing Team Marin

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-12T01:15:37Z

You may have noticed the name “Team Marin” appear on the Marin Real Estate blog Home Page. Recently the site’s founder, Mark Lomas, joined forces with longtime colleague and friend Ed Gutekunst to create Team Marin.

Ed is a lifetime Marin native and a successful real estate agent who specializes in the listing and sales of homes in southern and central Marin.

It’s been nearly a decade since Ed came to the real estate business after a long career in the film and video industry, where he was involved with the marketing and sales of high-end special effects and editing products

Working in the Sales and Marketing side of the business allowed Ed to combine his passion and excellence in writing with his exceptional talents as a graphic designer, fine artist, film and video editor. The merging of Ed’s marketing and creative skills with outstanding sales and interpersonal abilities have translated into an unbeatable combination when working in the multi-layered world of residential real estate.

Sales of homes up three months in a row

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-09T05:55:39Z

Sales of single family homes were up three months in a row when compared to the same month a year earlier. The key factor governing these sales is the dwindling inventory of homes.

There are plenty of buyers, but there are no homes to show them. Homeowners are betting that prices are inching up, and are trying to hold out for a substantial increase before listing. The strong demand for homes is between cash-heavy investors and first-time homebuyers. Their thought is: I can buy a $200,000 condo that was $500,000 or $550,000 just a few years ago. No brainer.

The news is so good that many agents and realtors expect the trend to continue straight through the busy spring buying season.

Let's see if they're right...

The Week’s Indicators were good…or were they?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-07T16:57:04Z

Read the list for March…Factory orders…Duarable goods (goods that will last at least three years), Capital goods (goods used to create other products), Inventories, and Jobs. Well, the first four were all up, raising confidence and expectations, but when the jobs numbers came in, although there was a good net gain and unemployment dropped to 8.2%, the number of jobs wasn’t as good as the month before or good enough to create that wonderfully rising parabolic curve of a steadily improving economy. Is this kind of a three steps forward, trip on your shoelaces, but no steps back? To answer my question posed in the title, yes, the indicators were good, though they could be better.

Thinking about that real estate news

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-04-04T04:18:27Z

Following that last IJ headline I posted, I decided to follow some of the numbers. What I found was surprising and, for the first time in quite a while I might risk sticking my neck out. Over the past few years I had felt bludgeoned by the constant chirpy, upbeat announcements by realtors, agents, MAR and CAR, kind of a de facto optimism that I don’t think served the Buyers or Sellers well. As you know by now, I try not to prognosticate, and will not do so today, but…but…the news is decidedly good. But will it persist? Again, for the first time in many years, I think it might.

Marin home prices, sales rise in February

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-29T04:54:43Z

Marin home prices, sales rise in February? That’s what the headline in the IJ said. And it was almost identical to the headline one month ago: “Marin home sales, prices rise in January.” Wow, good news two months in a row, with the median rising over 15% year-to-year, and sales increasing 16%. Does that seem right to you? Well, first of all, it doesn’t include condo sales, but if you want the whole story, read on and see what the Marin IJ has to say...I don't know about you, but I'm feeling a lot better.

Marin Home Prices

"Bidding War Breaks Out." Did I hear that right?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-29T04:46:43Z

“Bidding Wars Break Out.” Yes, it’s true. The attached article paints a national picture, though it’s starting to happen right here in our own backyard. Interesting stuff, to be sure. While I had not heard from anyone regarding Seattle or Miami or D.C., I have heard from a number of people that the peninsula is heating up. However, it’s largely because there isn’t any inventory at all, so anything nice is drawing the buyers like bees to honey.

Here’s the SF Chronicle article in it’s entirety

BIDDING WAR BREAKS OUT

Recovery? Is it all in your head?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-25T21:35:10Z

While I believe most people think the economy is on the mend, I am also seeing the “I’m not going to be the first one to jump into the pool” mindset. This refers to Sellers more than Buyers. I know the Buyers are out there; I keep hearing from them, they keep looking, they’ve got the cash or can get the loan. The problem is: There’s just no inventory to choose from. So why aren’t the Sellers selling? Think abut it. It’s hard selling a big asset that only six years ago was worth 30-40% more. Who wants to take that kind of loss in payout? Would you?

The list of Sellers I have who are planning to sell at some point in the future want to wait. How long? Until they see some upward movement, some recouping of their “paper” losses. Even if the floodgates opened and untold numbers of Buyers started writing offers, it would still take time for the demand to translate into rising prices. And until we see those rising prices, it is unlikely certain Sellers would see the numbers they’re looking for.

So what am I saying? The recovery in value will be slow, but the demand for homes will rise as the economy recovers. My mantra about Marin has always been two simple words: supply and demand. People want to live here, and the only place in the county with room for new housing is in Novato. If you want a new house in central or southern Marin, you will probably have to tear down an old one. And as long as there is that demand, Marin will hold its value longer and in bad times will lose its value slower. All in all, a great place to invest and an even better place to live.

Interest Rates on the Rise?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-25T21:24:57Z

You might be wondering when those rates would finally start to rise. It couldn't happen until the economy showed signs of improving, right? We'd see it coming, no? Not really.

Rates continue to move upward in response to fears of inflation that may accompany those glimmers of economic growth. The better the economy, the more pressure on rates.

My only concern for Buyers is that we are reaching an important junction where prices are not going up, but interest rates are. Think Cost versus Price. When buying a home you always need to consider cost, which is a combination of price and interest rate. Sometimes the lower price isn't always the best if the rates are higher.

Read more about rates: INTEREST RATES ON THE RISE

Housing Starts Show Signs of Improvement

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-25T21:12:29Z

Housing starts in the U.S. hovered in February near a three-year high and building permits rose, adding to signs that the industry at the heart of the last financial crisis is stabilizing.

The Weekly Indicators and The Buzz. What do you think?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-19T03:57:02Z

I drive around and look at the new inventory and hear the agents yakking…I sit in on sales meetings and listen to even more agents. I’m on information overload. Inventory continues to be at a minimum, the number of homes in contract is soaring into the high 40’s, and everyone says they have buyers just itching to buy. The monthly economic indicators released recently were positive; housing starts, consumer confidence, retail sales, jobless claims.

So, my question to you is: do you buy it? Things certainly seem to be looking better out there in the rest of the world, and they certainly are getting better here in Marin. Is Marin an aberration, a bizarre anomaly in a fishbowl that follows no other drummer? Well, yes, to a certain extent it is. But Marin is also a harbinger. Similar to San Francisco and the Peninsula, good news typically starts here at the center, and radiates outwards. But is it a sustainable trend, or another quick start out of the blocks only to stumble ten yards down the track?

I for one am feeling good for the first time in a long while.

Last week of the 1065 houses and condos on market, 49% were in contract! That’s insanely high. In the last month the percentage in contract has gone from 46 to 47, 48 and now 49. Is it a sign of demand bursting at the seams or of an inventory so low that it skews the numbers? It’s both, I believe. It should be a crazy Seller’s Market, but it doesn’t feel that way.

What I’d like to hear are your views? Gut feelings? Number crunching? Real-life experiences? Tell me what you think of the market here in Marin, but don’t limit it to that if you don’t want to.

How good is all this good news?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-09T19:45:55Z

So what to make of all the real estate and economy buzz? In case you’ve just returned from your extended vacation under a rock, you probably know that the Consumer Confidence Index has improved, that 225,000+ jobs were added last month and, to top it all, Warren Buffet comes out with an exhortation to buy as many homes as you can afford. Okay, that sounds good, but what should you do? Rush out and buy something?

First, let me say it: I think all the news is great. And then let me follow up and say I like to err on the side of caution. As I’ve said before, I don’t have a crystal ball. Still, from where I’m sitting, I’m feeling the first twinges of real optimism in a long time, but that optimism can easily be overturned by any number of unexpected national or international events. Sure, everyone wants to get into the market at the absolute bottom and ride whatever uplift to the max, but this I seldom possible, except by chance. Any definitive evidence of economic change cannot even be confirmed until 3-6 months after it happens.

All that being said, there is increased activity, the South Bay and San Francisco are really heating up (with Marin to follow?), multiple offers are getting more commonplace. There is a severe shortage of inventory, and well over 40% of listings are under contract (have accepted offers).

So what do I see? Again, no crystal ball, but whatever improvement we see should be slow and gradual. It still hinges on jobs and confidence. So if you want to get in on it, do it when you really feel the confidence yourself, not solely on an impulse.

Want to read some of those articles I mentioned? Select one of the links below.

Consumer Confidence Index

February Jobs Report

Warren Buffet’s Bullish Announcement

Marin Yearly Sales numbers

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-03-01T01:01:30Z

Some interesting numbers on the yearly sales from Marin. As I mentioned in an earlier post, while we seem to be drawn to the splashy headlines late in every month when the monthly sales figures come out, these are only indicators, small cogs in the larger wheels that are grinding out numbers on a yearly basis. We’re always looking for patterns to indicate trends. One month is never a pattern. Especially when there are seasonal patterns to contend with. Typically, Spring is the busiest season, followed by Fall, Summer, and then Winter, so any one month spike or dip can often be attributed to a seasonal variation.

Every year I wait to see how the yearly numbers went. And here they are (a slice from 2003 to 2011)

County wide sales since 2004

Year #Sales Avg. Price

2011 2506 $846,083

2010 2323 $904,818

2009 2173 $848,438

2008 2081 $1,075,509

2007 2507 $1,223,678

2006 2844 $1,091,526

2005 3407 $1,078,819

2004 3764 $929,103

2003 3600 $817,961

So what do the numbers tell you?

The number of sales peaked in 2004 and went into a four-year decline. Since 2009 the number of sales has steadily increased.

The Average Price peaked in 2007, declined for two years, made an effort to climb in 2010, and then slipped again in 2011.

The steep declines in price can be attributed to the large volume of distressed property sales (short sales and foreclosed properties) which dragged the prices down. The prices continued to slide when investors and first-timers saw a bottom in sight and began to scoop up those same properties in greater numbers. And now we have a shortage of inventory. And if this year is any indication, the number of sales will continue to increase, but it’s really too early to tell.

BTW, if you ever want to know about the yearly sale in a particular town, just drop us a line.

IJ says: Marin home sales, prices rise in January

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-02-27T01:06:41Z

Has it only been a month since that Oooops headline made us wince? What are we supposed to make of an IJ headline like this one from February 21st: “Marin home sales, prices rise in January”? While not yet a cause for rejoicing, it is nevertheless good news, and can be summarized in a few short phrases: “Increasingly eager buyers and a meager supply of inventory.” In addition, let’s not gauge any market change by what happens in January, typically one of the year’s two slowest months. But I am hearing talk; people are almost afraid to say it, but many of them think the market is picking up.

To read the entire Independent Journal story, click here: Marin Home Sales Prices Rise!

A comment on comments and the Real Estate Press.

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-02-27T01:00:13Z

After reading Cory’s well reasoned comment to the “Oops!” posting on February 1^st, I wanted to add something along the same line, something that is often left out of discussions of recently published real estate articles, whether they be in the IJ or the Wall Street Journal. Too often we browse a news site, pick up the paper, or open a magazine to be floored by the headlines shouting at us is bold type, trumpeting either a devastating collapse or a dizzying rise. At the end of the day, all those outlets want one thing: readers. And the best way to attract readers is with the headline often followed by some exaggerated speculation. Read a little further and either the news is not as bad (or good) as the headline suggests, or else the premise of the article isn’t founded in enough facts.

Typically, articles about a particular region’s real estate health are one-month snapshots, i.e. how January compared to December, or how January 2012 compared to January 2011. While these changes do provide useful information, I think they often ignore the big picture, and do not take into account larger statistical trends. In other words, it’s far more important to know how the year compared to past years than how December compared to January. Monthly variations can be so easily skewed by a number of factors: seasonal changes, bad weather, a large, one-time bump in big-ticket sales, international politics, a mortgage rate blip, etc.

So while we like to add links to recent articles, I think they should never be taken as gospel. Like Cory said, “If anything, it was a marginal price decline, but not worth making a big deal out of.” Most important is to read what others are saying, however much we agree or disagree, because all too often media outlets have a subliminal effect on people’s perception of reality. Remember that old saying “If it’s in print, it must be true.” Sadly, perception all too often becomes reality. Rather than accepting the flurry of opinions at face value (mine included), questions them; keep those comments coming and we’ll all benefit from the pooled knowledge.

Oops!

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-02-01T16:12:04Z

Uh oh! On January 29th 2012 the Marin Independent Journal reported that, "The sharp price declines that followed the financial crisis appears to be over (?), but in 2011 the median price here for single family home price in Marin dipped to $742,500 (down 4.2 percent from $775,000 in 2010, and the lowest median price since 2003. Some Realtors here in Marin think prices will continue to drop, and have suggested if you're considering putting your home on the market in 2012, now would be the time to begin. Obviously, no one has a crystal ball here, and any opinions are pure speculation. Time will tell...

What Happened to Marin Real Estate?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-01-12T16:43:58Z

2005
Some economist began predicting that the economy was in trouble due to Wall Street and the Big Banks Derivitive trades that collateralized liar loans (unstated or fabricated incomes) with other securities. And, as these liar loans/adjustable mortgages started to re-set at higher interest rates many economist began predicting the burst of the real estate bubble. (see Michael Lewis's book "The Big Short.")
2006
In July and August of 2006 the Marin Real Estate market peaked. July and August reflected the highest median price sales to date.
2007
As the bubble builds, real estate sales in Marin begin to slow, and the median price begins dropping.
2008
In the fall of 2008 the predictions of 2005 are realized, and for the remainder of 2008 the Marin Real Estate market slips into a lull. Northern Marin is hit hard! Clearly it's a buyer's market.
2009
The lull continues. Prices drop. Foreclosure, short sales, and REO properties dominate the Marin Real Estate market. Investor begin buying troubled properties. The low end of the Marin Real Estate market keeps the rest of the Marin market propped up.
2010
The local real estate market here starts to pick up, and Marin Realtors wonder if we've stopped bouncing off the bottom? Mid range and upper end properties sales pick up but buyers are extremenly picky, and demanding.
2011
It appears the market is showing signs of life and then the Deficit Ceiling Debate begins, and the Marin Real Estate market begins to slip into another lull in response along with fears with what's happening with Europe's economy. Buyers have become more cautious then ever. Some buyers are so frustrated trying to get a mortgage when they have a strong down payment, good credit, and additional resources and still can't get a loan. A significant number of qualified buyers decide to rent. Rents go up, and the real estate market here in the Bay Area continues to slow.
2012
A lot of good signs out there! The Stock Market is up. Interest rates are down. Early reports of traffic through Sunday Open Houses appears to be picking up. More new buyers coming into the market? And yet, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is Europe's economy. In particular, Europe's Derivitive market. This is the big unknown, and this could change everything.

Happy New Year!

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2012-01-01T15:05:55Z

Marin Real Estate

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-11-25T16:21:35Z

For the whole article click here: Marin Home Sales Edge Up

Home Sales Up!

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-10-22T22:13:08Z

On October 20, 2011 the Marin Independent Journal reported that the number of houses sold in Marin edged up in September compared with the same month in 2010. For the whole story click on the link below.

Marin Home Sales Up in September

Fewer Marin Homes Fall Behind on Mortgages

Marin Real Estate in "Real Time"

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-10-17T14:33:16Z

This Graph will change Towns every 7 seconds

Data provided by Mark Lomas
Marin Real Estate
(415) 435-1718 MDLomas@gmail.com

Marin Luxury Real Estate

America Cup's Course

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-09-22T21:11:37Z

The proposed course for the 34th America Cup in San Francisco Bay.

The 2013 America's Cup in San Francisco is touted to be the largest sporting event to hit American shores in the next 10 years! It's already considered the third largest sporting event after the Olympics and World Cup soccer, and there's been much chat about how big it'll be when the Cup hits town starting with events on the bay next summer.

America Cup's Website

Realtor Serves Marijuana Brownies

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-08-16T22:54:59Z

Apparently some sort of Mixup in Hollywood

As actress Rose McGowan of Grindhouse, Scream and Jawbreakers fame prepared her Hollywood home for sale, a mixup between McGowan and her assistant as to which brownies to put out for the eight Realtors and various inspectors coming to the home, according to ContactMusic.com.

The agents apparently ate marijuana-laced brownies (“pot brownies”) after McGowan’s assistant put out the wrong batch of snacks. ContactMusic.com reports the assistant made the brownies for McGowan to try but mixed them up with the legitimate brownies.

“Enjoy!”

McGowan said, “There were eight Realtors and inspectors coming to the house… and you have to get out of your house… and I notice there’s a big, huge plate of brownies that said ‘Enjoy!’ on the saran-wrap… and I just left, I didn’t think about it.”

She also noted that “At 4:30, I get a call from my realtor saying, ‘Erm, I’m at my parent teacher conference; was there anything in those brownies?’ I’m imagining all these poor people… high as a kite, like, ‘What the hell happened in Hollywood?’”

CEO for FSBO.com Lists Own Property For Sale

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-08-16T22:45:55Z

Former FSBO CEO sells home the traditional way

Founder and former CEO of ForSalebyOwner.com, Colby Sambrotto listed his 2,000 square foot New York condominium on his own through online classified ads and FSBO sites, but after six months, he opted to hire New York broker Jesse Buckler who immediately advised a price change as the listing was not attracting the right buyer.

After giving up on the DIY route, Sambrotto’s decision to hire a broker led to attracting multiple offers, closing for $150,000 over the original asking price. The Wall Street Journal reports the listing sold for $2.15 million including a 6% commission.

Many FSBOs turn to Realtors

The news stands as an enormous validation of the real estate profession and while some may tease, it is no laughing matter and the former FSBO CEO made a good financial decision.

AGBeat columnist Herman Chan said, “If people want to take a stab at For Sale By Owner (ie FSBO), go for it. But well over 80% of FSBO’s eventually have to list with an real estate agent to get their house sold. It’s harder than it looks!”

Not a new dilemma

Marlow Harris, Seattle Residential and Investment Consultant at Coldwell Banker Bain Associates told AGBeat, “The ForSaleByOwner.com founder’s dilemma is one we see quite often and is not unusual. Trying to sell your own property yourself or using a discount brokerage, is not the solution for everyone. Unusual properties, properties in the higher price range, these are more difficult to sell and often require specialization.”

Harris continues, “We see these choices across the board, from single family homes to huge housing developments. For instance, Vulcan, one of Paul Allen’s companies which has invested heavily in Redfin, does not use Redfin to market their many condominium projects. They use traditional real estate firms such as John L. Scott, Williams Marketing and Matrix Real Estate, finding that the do-it-yourself approach to real estate just doesn’t work for these types of sales.”

Tiburon Real Estate Broker Pleads Guilty To Loan Fraud

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-08-04T18:44:39Z

Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 the Marin independent Journal reported that:

" A Tiburon Real Estate broker has pleaded GUILTY to Federal Fraud charges stemming from a Five Million Dollar re-financing loan on his own home the IRS reported. Abraham Valentino, 52, pleaded guilty as charged last week to wire fraud, and money laundering, said IRS special agent Arlette Lee. Authorities said Valentino falsified his income on his loan application, claiming a monthly income was $132,000 when it was actually $4,500 to $6000. Valentino used the proceeds of the transaction to transfer $63,427.40 into his personal bank account prosecuters said."

For the whole article, click here: Tiburon Real Estate Broker Pleads Guilty

The "Big Six" Home Selling Factors

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-08-03T18:58:08Z

Although they can be stated in different ways there are only six factors that affect the sale of a home.
It is important for you, as the seller, to understand who or what has control over them and how they impact on each other.

You control 3 of the 6
The Market controls 2 of the 6
Your REALTOR® controls 1 of the 6

YOU Control1. Price - You determine list price for your home. However, a list price above the market for homes similar to yours will impact negatively on buyer interest in making an offer. Your REALTOR® will review price history with you to assist you in making a list price determination.
2. Terms - Buyers have requirements just as sellers do. Your willingness to respect them and be willing to negotiate which terms will be acceptable to both parties can have a very positive impact. Price and Terms will usually be negotiated at the same time.
3. Condition - How well you have maintained the home will influence both your price and length of time to sell. The pool of buyers who are willing to make major repairs is much smaller than the pool of buyers who want a home that has been well maintained.
THE MARKET Controls4. Timing - Economic conditions operate independently of price, terms and property condition. Similarly, seasons and weather factors can affect the time it takes to sell a home.
5. Competition - The number of homes on the market most certainly bears heavily on your ability to sell your home on a timely basis.
YOUR REALTOR® Controls6. Promotion - From entry into the Multiple Listing System, to internet marketing and any other programs your agent will have an impact on your home sale.
CONCLUSION

Feedback from prospects who have visited your home
Changes in market conditions

Your willingness or ability to make adjustments in price, terms or condition based on the information provided will be the final determinant as to how quickly your home will sell. Any Questions?

Marin Real Estate

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-30T20:37:57Z

PENDING Home Sales Rise Unexpectantly in June

Marin Foreclosures Level Off, Defaults Fall in Marin

The Debt Ceiling,the Bond Market, and Real Estate

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-27T15:03:43Z

Let’s take a look at what is happening in Europe these days to understand why it’s key that the United States finds a solution to the debt ceiling issue. Not only have some European banks recently failed a stress test, but last week there was news that Greek, Italian, Portuguese, and French “credit default swaps” (which are insurance policies against default) were trading at record levels. While the European Union is continuing to work to contain Europe’s debt problems and prevent a default in Greece, these events carry a very important lesson for the U.S.

Why? Because solving our debt ceiling debate and finding a long-term plan for lowering our deficit and being fiscally sound will raise confidence in our debt and help the U.S. keep its excellent AAA credit rating from the various credit rating firms like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s. This will help investors continue to see the U.S. as a safe haven for their money, which is a key aspect of our continued economic recovery.

There was some good news last week for the housing sector, as June Housing Starts and Building Permits were both reported better than expected.

Political uncertainty caused volatility in the markets last week, which put pressure on the bond market and home loan rates.

The Tiburon Shoreline and Mount Tamalpais from Angel Island

Sunday Online Open Houses

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-23T13:38:28Z

Click here for: Sunday Marin County Online Open Houses by the Marin Independent Journal

The Marin Independent Journal Sunday Online Open House web site is the definitive
Marin Online Open House Web Site.

Click the link below for the Marin Association of Realtor's new Sunday Online Open House's web site:
Marin Online Open Houses

Click the link below to search Marin Homes For Sale (No Registration Required)
Marin Homes For Sale

Marin Real Estate Statistics for June 2011

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-20T13:53:00Z

The Marin Real Estate Scene

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-19T19:37:33Z

Marin Home Sales Rise, Prices Edges Up Article

SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE NO REGISTRATION REQUIRED

Marin Luxury Home Sales

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-19T19:36:28Z

Rick Turley, President of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage recently reported that, "The luxury market, like the overall market in Marin, continues to show signs of improvement. But, there will likely continue to be some choppiness from month to month as the market works to get traction. Comparisons with a year ago are difficult because the market last May was still benefitting from the Federal Tax Credit, which has since expired. Although the credit wasn't aimed at the upper priced homes, the tax break indirectly helped fuel sales for move up buyers who sold their entry level and mid priced homes."

Turley also noted some key finding in May of 2011 such as:
* The most expensive sale in Marin County in May was an eight bedroom, eight bath 8000 square foot home in Ross sold for $8.75 million.
* Mill Valley hosted the most million dollar plus sales with 10, followed by Tiburon , Kentfield, Larkspur, and Sausalito with seven apiece, and San Rafael with six.
* Sellers received on average 95 percent of their asking price, down from 96 percent the previous month, but the same percentage as a year ago.
* Homes that Sold stayed on the market an average of 96 days, down from 114 days but up from 89 days a year ago.

Marin Real Estate Statistics June 2011

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-19T14:28:17Z

SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE NO REGISTRATION REQUIRED

Assessor Cuts Marin Home Valuations

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-08T14:23:23Z

     On July 5th the Marin Independent Journal newspaper reported that, "The Marin County assessor, citing a continuing slide in home values, has reduced the value of 27 percent of Marin's residential properties, providing tax breaks for 21,600 home owners.
     The move by assessor Rich Benson eclipses adjustments made last year that reduced the value of 21 percent of the county's residences in what was then the biggest reassessment purge since Proposition 13, providing breaks for 16,000 property owners.
     Benson, noting declining values in a deflated real estate market, reduced assessed valuations for thousands of parcels " mostly because of the economic conditions that have existed" for several years.
     For the whole story click here: Marin Assessor Cuts Marin Home Valuations

Marin Real Estate Statistics

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-07-08T14:02:54Z

Marin History Museum's Marin Independent Journal's Exhibit

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-06-26T15:57:21Z

On June 24, 2011 the Marin History Museum held a "Sneak Preview" of their Marin Independent Journal's Newspaper Exhibit. This event is now open to the public. The Marin History Museum is located at 1125 B Street in San Rafael. Museum Hours are 11am to 4pm Tuesday through Saturday. The Marin Independent Journal is celebrating it's 150 Year Anniversary.

One of many Marin Real Estate advertisement on exhibit. There are so many wonderful items on display here that the only way to truly enjoy this exhibit is to attend in person. Highly recommended, great exhibit! Much thanks to the Marin History Museum and all the people there that make exhibits like this possible!

Larkspur Real Estate History

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-06-20T15:15:00Z

Larkspur, California 1911

This 1911 full page advertisement from the San Francisco Examiner assured potential buyers that "desirable people will be given the most reasonalble terms. Undesirable people won't be given any terms. They are not wanted." Image courtesy Larkspur Heritage Preservation Board

Time to Buy?

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-06-16T13:36:02Z

Despite what appears to be a non-stop wave of tough news regarding real estate, four major media players have come out this month with the same advice: It Is Time to Buy a Home! Here are the four articles and a breakdown as to why the advice makes sense.

The Wall Street Journal: Why It’s Time to Buy

CBS Money Watch: Why the Time to Buy is Now

Forbes Magazine: 9 Reasons to Buy a House Now

National Public Radio: For Many, It’s Still a Good Time to Buy a Home

With prices continuing to depreciate in most regions of the country, some may wonder why these four entities are suggesting to their readership that now is the time to buy. Each organization realizes that PRICE is not as important as COST. The cost of a home can go up even if prices continue to fall. Unless you are an all cash buyer, you must take into consideration the expense of mortgaging when calculating the full cost of a home. Here is some information to consider.

Interest Rates

Currently, interest rates sit at historic lows. However, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, PMI and the National Association of Realtors are all projecting approximately a 1% increase in mortgage rates over the next year. A one percent increase in rate negates a ten percent fall in prices.

Lending Standards

The government has proposed a tightening of lending standards called Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM). If accepted as proposed two things will happen:

The qualification process for loans will become more difficult
The cost of a loan will increase

Bottom Line

There is a reason more and more financial organizations are suggesting to their followers that now is the time to buy a home: because the cost of purchasing a home is about to increase (even if prices continue to fall).

If you're thinking of buying or selling a home here in Marin County contact Mark Lomas at 415.435.1718 cell or email MDLomas@gmail.com

Marin Real Estate News

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-06-15T14:37:44Z

On June 14, 2011 the Marin Independent Journal newspaper reported that," The number of Marin single family homes sold in May dropped 12.4 percent to 169 from the same month a year ago and the median sales price dipped slightly to $775,000, according to new figures from the Marin County assessor's office.
The number of houses placed "under contract" in May soared to a four year high of 231 - the highest figure since 232 contracts reached in May 2007. The figures suggest the May sales dip could be followed by a surge as contracts are closed in early summer."

Marin Independent Journal Article Marin Home Sales

Federal Government Plans Cut in Cap for Backing Mortgages

Search Marin Homes For Sale No Registration Required

Banks and Loan Modifications

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-06-13T15:23:21Z

The banks have made loan modifications very difficult. Sherry Belcher of ReMax Golden Empire Realty in Southern California reported in this months's NAR Realtor's magazine: "I've worked in the loan servicing business for 18 years, and real estate is my passion. The way I see it, most people are forced to do a short sale simply because the banks won't modify their existing loan. I've have seen several instances in which struggling borrowers try to work with the banks, only to learn that the banks won't even consider a loan modification request until the mortgage is three months behind. Crazy!

Why, instead of giving the home to a complete stranger at a discounted price, can't banks help borrowers who truly have a hardship? Qualify owners for what they can pay and reduce the principal.

The government is helping banks cover their losses, so taxpayer should have a voice.

So, where's our voice? Where's the political leadership? Current Bank policies regarding loan modifications are a disaster, and are making any kind of economic recovery in the housing markets very difficult if almost impossible. Why?

Recently a homeowner in Marin that was current on their payments with Wachovia were told that they would not qualify for a loan modification because they made too much money. This homeowner missed two payments, contacted Wachovia to try and modify their loan again, and were told they did not make enough money to qualify for a loan modification?

Without any leadership from Washington, the bank's loan modification programs are a disaster. What a mess Washington, Wall Street, and the Big Banks have gotten us in. Until the banks are ready to reasonably modify loans the housing recovery will continue to stall.

Are you listening President Obama? (playoff on the Rick Santelli rant)

Memorial Day

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-05-29T16:23:52Z

Much thanks to all those who've served, and continue to serve our Country!
Happy Memorial Day!

Belvedere and Tiburon Census Data

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-05-23T21:10:04Z

The information provided here comes from the 2005 to 2009 American Communiity Service (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census:
Belvedere:
Total Population: 2,068
Households by Type: 928 households, 611 of them in families
Housing: a total of 1,045 housing units, of which 117 were vacant, and 15 on the market for sale. 55 homes were for seasonal, recreational, or occassional use.
Race: Nearly 94% white, Hispanic or Latino 3.5%, Asian 2.8%,African American 0.1%
Income: Median Income for Belvedere is $117,778
Tiburon:
Total Population: 8,962
Household total: 3,729 households, 2,482 of them in familiers
Housing: Nearly 28% of household occupants live in their homes by themselves and persons age 65 or older made up more than half of those who lived alone. Of the total number 296 were vacant. The rental vacancy factor was 5%, as of the census taking
Race: 88% of the Tiburon population is white, Hispanic or Latino:4.6%, Asian: 5.6%, African -American: 0,8%
Income: The median income for Tiburon residents was $146,917
This data was published in the Ark Newspaper May 18, 2011

Search Belvedere and Tiburon Homes For Sale

Tiburon Real Estate

GutekunstLomas2012 — 2011-05-21T17:21:52Z

The Marin Independent Journal newspaper recently reported that a "Revitalization Report" has been released for downtown Tiburon. A committee of Tiburon elected officials and Town staffers has released a report that recommends more than a dozen actions including a parking study, marketing task force, and beautification project to help boost activity downtown.

The committee was formed in early 2010 to address vacancies, and turnovers in Tiburon's commercial/downtown districts.

For the whole article click here: Tiburon Revitalization Report 2011